State of the Nation: Potential Transfer Targets

With four days to go, the phony war is over and the real business is going to start.  Once the FA Cup games are finished, the window will start in earnest, and the last two days will erupt with the transfer strategy at many clubs motivated more by panic than by any logical policy or real tactical need. 


Let's hope West Ham have their ducks in a row and can be the beneficiary of other clubs' knee-jerk last-ditch transfer panic-buys, and more importantly panic-sales.  There is much impatience out there by fans of all clubs waiting for either some player acquisitions, or the window to be closed so they can hold onto their "stars".  But I believe the owners at West Ham have worked hard and diligently towards securing the players we need for relatively sensible money - given this is the January transfer window.

The West Ham management team have identified 3 key potential positions for strengthening in the squad (Striker, Winger- Wide player, CB).  George John has been brought in on loan, and by all accounts he is going to be good, so CB is perhaps taken care of.  Many other offers have been made, with many rejected.  Two offers are still being considered, and negotiations are progressing slowly, with the vendors stalling and waiting for potential late bids from others to bump up the price.  2 of the key positions we are looking to fill is for another striker and a wide player.  I have made a list of realistic potential targets and their relative merits include the following:

Nikica Jelavic: It's likely the 26 year old Croatian striker will leave Rangers this window as the club are in financial combustion with HMRevenue on their back: the Scottish equivalent of Portsmouth if you like.  One club has put in a bid for him so far: West Ham.  The first bid was rejected out of hand; the second hasn't been rejected, and negotiations continue, albeit slowly.  Jelavic is not playing this weekend for Rangers against Hibs because of a "Virus"; read into that what you will.  His average goals per game in the SPL for Rangers has been 0.67.  Celtic fans rate him; that should tell you enough about him, given the history of "love" between the clubs.   

Verdict: 50% chance of success with this bid - Rangers are dragging their feet, although they need to sell him; West Ham are running out of patience: there are other targets out there.  At between 7-8M he is pricey given our budget, but by all accounts, worth it; Liverpool and CSKA are sniffing; hence the reluctance of Rangers to accept early bids for him.

Nicky Maynard: The 25 year old Bristol City striker was in "advanced negotiations with Wigan" according to Bristol City's manager last week.  However, Wigan deny they have even spoken to him.  Nicky Maynard is back at the Robins training hard for tomorrow's league game.  The scoop is Maynard was dissatisfied with Wigan's personal terms.  Maynard is a good, not great, journeyman Championship striker.  That doesn't mean he doesn't have potential: you can only score with service.  Last summer, Bristol City turned down a 6M bid from Leicester, but since then Maynard's contract negotiations with Bristol City have stalled, and Maynard can walk on a free in May.  

Verdict: No bid yet.  Considering their predicament, the lack of firm interest from PL clubs, his mediocre 0.35 goals per game average while at Bristol City, 6M is far to much for this player, 3M is all City should be offered if Jelavic or other options fall through. Maynard will be sold by Tuesday: Bristol City simply cannot afford to let this player walk.

Marvin Sordell: The 20 year old Watford striker has garnered some enquiries from the West Ham owners, but no more yet.  He's young, and that's a double edged sword: if we're promoted, is he old enough and experienced enough to deal with PL defenders?  I doubt it. However, youth is potential.  

Verdict: Sean Dyche values Sordell, perhaps too much.  Paying more than 4M would be unwise, but this window is often expensive.  Given his age and his 0.375 goals per game average this season, he must be considered in the same breath as Maynard.  And, if that is the case, given lower wages and more potential, perhaps he's a better deal?

Billy Sharp: Trying to find loyalty in a football player these days is like trying to find a Republican who will vote for higher taxes.  And I can't work 25 year old Billy Sharp or Doncaster Rovers out: he was willing to move Leicester after they bid an undisclosed (thought to be in the region of 6-7M) amount on January 7th for him.  He tentatively agreed the move, but then Doncaster offered him improved personal terms and he rejected the move to Leicester to stay at Doncaster.  Is that loyalty?  A lack of ambition?  Greed? Who knows.  But if you consider that he's playing for a poor side and has still managed a consistent goals per game average of 0.48, you'd have to say he's a better bet than either Maynard or Sordell.  But is he still on the market?
Verdict: Unlikely to leave since he just signed a contract with improved terms.  Not worth more than 5M, and given Doncaster turned down a rumoured 6-7M, you'd have to say his arrival is extremely unlikely.  Too bad - a goal every two games for Doncaster could translate to better for us...and that's potentially good stats for any striker (Torres eat your heart out).


Jordan Rhodes: League One Huddersfield Town wonderkidVerdict: Never say never, but flying pork is rare as are blue moons and bargains in the January transfer window, and, until he's proven in the higher leagues, you'd have to say, despite the stats, he's over priced.


Wingers


Robert Snodgrass: Leeds United's 24 year old Scottish winger/striker was a boyhood Celtic fan, so disregard anything you hear from Rangers supporters on this player!  Leeds fans generally speak very highly of "Snoddy".  He  is portrayed as a hard working team player who is consistent week in and out.  Not a prodigious goal scorer, he is more the creator of chances and a set piece merchant, rather like a younger Matty Taylor in that respect.  Like Taylor he has had his issues with injuries, and recently (New Year's Eve) was in having his appendix out.  But his rapid recovery and willingness to play quickly is another testament to the man's motivation.  Leeds originally valued him at 8-9M last year, but with his contract expiring in May, he will likely walk into another Championship club or a lower Premier League club this summer if he isn't sold now.  Ken Bates, the Leeds owner, is fairly mercenary when it comes to money (and would give his eye teeth for profit - sorry couldn't resist), so, despite how very central he is to the Leeds team, he is always up for sale.  While I feel for the Leeds fans, who are going through Hell under Bates, he would make an excellent signing for us.  While West Ham can't be considered a bigger side than Leeds, we are a better bet for promotion and future Premier League aspirations; whereas, Leeds, while under Bates, will, I fear be kept as money generating pit for Bates' own finances (after all, he's only just admitted to owning them - crafty bugger).  Therefore, the Hammers may be a tempting proposition for Snodgrass.  
Verdict: There is a tentative bid in for him; however, the Jelavic bid is the priority right now, and room for negotiation will likely be dictated by the Jelavic negotiations. Personally, I'd snap him up now: he can play either wing, and combined with his youth, leadership, motivation he would be an asset to any team in the same way Parker was.  Goals per game average: 0.22.


Lewis McGugan: The 23 year old Nottingham Forest midfielder by his own admission lately, doesn't like playing wide.  West Ham have a dearth of good solid midfield players; the team needs more width.  I'm not sure Lewis McGugan, despite his cheaper valuation than Snodgrass, is the man for West Ham if we're after a wide player.  Certainly he has youth on his side, and he is the jewel in Forest's crown.  If promotion and survival is the prospect, then who would you dump for McGugan to play in the centre of midfield?  Noble?  Nolan?  Lansbury?  Collison? Diop?  Perhaps.  But is perhaps a good enough reason to blow 3-4M on a player that doesn't really solve our problem - a lack of width?  
Verdict: His potential acquisition by the club has to be seen in the light of what we need.  If we get a winger and a striker, then go for it, if there's any money left over!  Given his goals per game average is 0.19, (which means his cracker against West Ham may have been a lucky strike!) Snodgrass makes infinitely more sense: he's a winger, a team player and scores more goals.


Paul